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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Relegation Round, as 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Elversberg drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.07 xG and SV Elversberg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.62 / defence 1.20 against SV Elversberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 25% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 48%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, SV Elversberg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights