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FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.15 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.77 / defence 1.18 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.72 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 35% | Draw 28% | FC St. Pauli 37%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, FC St. Pauli 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights