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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.13 xG and FC Augsburg 1.85 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.69 / defence 1.16 against FC Augsburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 23% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 54%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Heidenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 58%, FC Augsburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights