🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 0-3 hammering of 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Mönchengladbach beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.18 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.64 / defence 1.28 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 24% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.00 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights