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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 16, as 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.25 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.75 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 36% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Köln 33%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 63%, 1. FC Köln 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights