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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.28 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.86 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Wolfsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 51%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.18 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights