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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.91 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.69 / defence 0.76 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 26% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 43%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 58%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.25 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights