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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 2-5 hammering of FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 2-5 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.53 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.74 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.40 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 34% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 43%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights