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Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC Augsburg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.35 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.38 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 37%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 65%, VfB Stuttgart 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights