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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 17, as FC Augsburg and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.19 xG and Union Berlin 1.12 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 36% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 32%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG, Union Berlin 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights