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Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.82 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.74 / defence 0.81 against SC Freiburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 50% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 21%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.23 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights