FC Augsburg 0-2 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host RB Leipzig at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.33 points per game. Last five: W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Bundesliga matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RB Leipzig have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 2.33 PPG versus RB Leipzig's 2.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
RB Leipzig trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 33% versus RB Leipzig 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 33% | RB Leipzig 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.55 xG and RB Leipzig 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.998 / defence 0.995 | RB Leipzig attack 0.810 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.385. Data: 3 FC Augsburg games / 3 RB Leipzig games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | RB Leipzig 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 33% | RB Leipzig 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Augsburg 1.55 / RB Leipzig 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.998 / def 0.995 | RB Leipzig attack 0.810 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 17 October 2020 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
FC Augsburg 0 - 2 RB Leipzig.
Where is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 44% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.08
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.12
RB Leipzig xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.12 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RB Leipzig's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-D-W. It's still early in the season for RB Leipzig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 2.33 PPG, RB Leipzig on 2.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. RB Leipzig's attacking output running into FC Augsburg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: RB Leipzig in 67%.
Defensively: FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
RB Leipzig
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have FC Augsburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 33%, RB Leipzig 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC Augsburg) and 67% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; RB Leipzig in 33%; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 67% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 67% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 0-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.55 xG and RB Leipzig 1.12 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against RB Leipzig attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 44% | Draw 33% | RB Leipzig 24%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a RB Leipzig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 33%, RB Leipzig 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 2.33 PPG, RB Leipzig 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.