FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 53%, yet in-form RB Leipzig provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host RB Leipzig at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RB Leipzig — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, RB Leipzig have the better historical record — 7 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for FC Augsburg.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2026, ended 2–5 with RB Leipzig winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RB Leipzig have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and RB Leipzig 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 67% | RB Leipzig 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.03 xG and RB Leipzig 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.931 / defence 1.070 | RB Leipzig attack 0.947 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.358. Data: 43 FC Augsburg games / 43 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 21% | RB Leipzig 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | RB Leipzig 3.85. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Leipzig (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 80% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 21% | RB Leipzig 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Augsburg 2.03 / RB Leipzig 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.931 / def 1.070 | RB Leipzig attack 0.947 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.38
RB Leipzig xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 53% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 3 | RB Leipzig 7W.
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
53%
1.90
21%
4.66
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.41
1.38
RB Leipzig xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
3%
29.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.38 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 10D 19L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 26W 5D 12L from 43 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 9W 3D 9L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.16 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 26W 5D 12L in their last 43 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.52 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.43 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
7
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2026, when RB Leipzig 5-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 62%, RB Leipzig 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC Augsburg) and 62% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Augsburg's games and 57% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC Augsburg's matches and 62% of RB Leipzig's.
Do FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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