FC Augsburg 0-3 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 41%, yet in-form FC Augsburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Hertha BSC travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2020, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.17 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 1W 1D 4L from 6 outings — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.17. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC Augsburg have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 0.67) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 50% and Hertha BSC 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 50% | Hertha BSC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.61 xG and Hertha BSC 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.028 / defence 1.114 | Hertha BSC attack 1.190 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.387. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 FC Augsburg games / 6 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Hertha BSC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Augsburg (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 33% | Hertha BSC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Augsburg 1.61 / Hertha BSC 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.028 / def 1.114 | Hertha BSC attack 1.190 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Hertha BSC xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 November 2020 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
FC Augsburg 0 - 3 Hertha BSC.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 31% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
31%
3.19
28%
3.58
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.45
1.84
Hertha BSC xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.29
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
5%
20.07
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.84 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 1D 2L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.67 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
FC Augsburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 2.00 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2020, when Hertha BSC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 33%, Hertha BSC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for FC Augsburg and 100% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of FC Augsburg's games and 100% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of FC Augsburg's matches and 100% of Hertha BSC's.
Do FC Augsburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat FC Augsburg 0-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.61 xG and Hertha BSC 1.84 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Hertha BSC attack 1.19 / defence 1.28, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 31% | Draw 28% | Hertha BSC 41%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 50%, Hertha BSC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.