FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Hamburger SV travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Augsburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Augsburg, 0 for Hamburger SV and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 60% and Hamburger SV 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 63% | Hamburger SV 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.95 xG and Hamburger SV 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / defence 0.900 | Hamburger SV attack 0.829 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 FC Augsburg games / 35 Hamburger SV games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 59% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Hamburger SV 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 59% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Augsburg 1.95 / Hamburger SV 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.023 / def 0.900 | Hamburger SV attack 0.829 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hamburger SV xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV part of?
FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 59% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV?
Record (2 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.02) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.24
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.00
Hamburger SV xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
3%
39.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.00 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 7D 15L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (9W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.31 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.14 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Hamburger SV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Hamburger SV away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.61 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
0
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 56%, Hamburger SV 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC Augsburg) and 56% (Hamburger SV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hamburger SV in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Augsburg's games and 56% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Augsburg's matches and 56% of Hamburger SV's.
Do FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.