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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Hamburger SV 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Hamburger SV 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.62 xG and Hamburger SV 1.30 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.44 against Hamburger SV attack 0.63 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 45% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 30%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 59%, Hamburger SV 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights