FC Augsburg 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. FC Augsburg's 1.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of FSV Mainz 05's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 40% versus FSV Mainz 05 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 40% | FSV Mainz 05 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.67 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.874 / defence 1.115 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.704 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.321. FSV Mainz 05 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 FC Augsburg games / 5 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | FSV Mainz 05 5.00. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 40% | FSV Mainz 05 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Augsburg 1.67 / FSV Mainz 05 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.874 / def 1.115 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.704 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FSV Mainz 05 xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 31 October 2020 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg 3 - 1 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 49% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 0W-0D-5L in 5 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.87x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.70x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.20
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.04
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
4%
26.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.04 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 5L across 5 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Augsburg by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 0.80 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 in 60%.
Defensively: FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 (0.00 PPG).
Have FC Augsburg or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 40%, FSV Mainz 05 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for FC Augsburg and 80% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 40% of games; FSV Mainz 05 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 60% of FSV Mainz 05's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of FC Augsburg's matches and 80% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat FSV Mainz 05 3-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.67 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.04 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.70 / defence 1.54, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 49% | Draw 31% | FSV Mainz 05 20%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 40%, FSV Mainz 05 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. FC Augsburg scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.