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Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 30, as FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.21 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.10 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.75 / defence 0.80 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, Eintracht Frankfurt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.29 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights