FC Augsburg 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WWK Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 59% and Eintracht Frankfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | Eintracht Frankfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.21 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.750 / defence 0.799 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.945 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.463. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 FC Augsburg games / 63 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Augsburg 1.21 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.750 / def 0.799 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.945 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FC Augsburg 0 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 38% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (6 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.75) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.40
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.32
1.10
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.10 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 21W 18D 24L from 63 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 20D 17L across 63 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.29 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 12W 10D 9L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 9D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.73 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 67%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 21W 18D 24L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 20D 17L in their last 63 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.48 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Sep 2026, when FC Augsburg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
5
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 61%, Eintracht Frankfurt 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (FC Augsburg) and 64% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Augsburg's games and 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of FC Augsburg's matches and 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 30, as FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.21 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.10 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.75 / defence 0.80 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 38% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, Eintracht Frankfurt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.29 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.