🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out FC Augsburg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.26 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.72 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.94 / defence 1.53 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 15% | Draw 16% | Borussia Dortmund 68%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights