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Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out FC Augsburg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat FC Augsburg 2-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.19 xG and Bayern München 1.78 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Augsburg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayern München outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Bayern München attack 1.20 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 25% | Draw 24% | Bayern München 51%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 54%, Bayern München 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Bayern München's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights