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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat FC Augsburg 1-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.82 xG and Bayern München 1.17 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.69 against Bayern München attack 1.20 / defence 0.74, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 25% | Draw 31% | Bayern München 44%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Bayern München 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights