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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 2-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.73 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.73 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 23% | 1899 Hoffenheim 38%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 55%, 1899 Hoffenheim 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Augsburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.21 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights