Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Werder Bremen travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Eintracht Frankfurt) versus 1.50 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 2 for Werder Bremen and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 71% and Werder Bremen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | Werder Bremen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.89 xG and Werder Bremen 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.943 / defence 1.080 | Werder Bremen attack 1.107 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.898 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 42 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 34%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Werder Bremen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Werder Bremen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.89 / Werder Bremen 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.943 / def 1.080 | Werder Bremen attack 1.107 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.898 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Werder Bremen xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 44% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
Record (10 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 4W | Draws 4 | Werder Bremen 2W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.94) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.38
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.53
1.64
Werder Bremen xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.64 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 14W 13D 15L from 42 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 19L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.31 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.29 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Werder Bremen away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.52 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, Werder Bremen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 57% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 57% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 57% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.