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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat Werder Bremen 4-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.83 xG and Werder Bremen 1.58 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Werder Bremen attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 43% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 33%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 65%, Werder Bremen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.41 average — above their attacking norm. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights