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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 1-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.95 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.78 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 / defence 0.99 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 43% | Draw 21% | VfL Wolfsburg 36%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, VfL Wolfsburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.58 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights