Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eintracht Frankfurt face VfB Stuttgart.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VfB Stuttgart travel to Deutsche Bank Park to take on Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
VfB Stuttgart away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 60% of VfB Stuttgart's (from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2 VfB Stuttgart — a Eintracht Frankfurt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 70% and VfB Stuttgart 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 63% | VfB Stuttgart 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.161 / defence 1.116 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.969 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.412. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 60 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 60.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 34%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.38 | Draw 4.19 | VfB Stuttgart 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.71 / VfB Stuttgart 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.161 / def 1.116 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.969 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 42% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (1.16) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 60 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.19
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.24
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 20D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.83 PPG from 60 outings (33W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.53 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 13W 11D 5L across their last 29 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.66 points per game from their last 29 away games (14W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.08 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 20D 16L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.72 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 76%, VfB Stuttgart at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 69% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 59% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 69% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out VfB Stuttgart 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.16 / defence 1.12 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 42% | Draw 24% | VfB Stuttgart 34%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 63%, VfB Stuttgart 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.53 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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