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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.33 xG and Union Berlin 1.13 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.29 / defence 0.86 against Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | Draw 19% | Union Berlin 17%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 68%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights