🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.76 xG and Union Berlin 1.14 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Union Berlin outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.29 / defence 1.07 against Union Berlin attack 0.76 / defence 1.40, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Draw 17% | Union Berlin 13%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Union Berlin's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights