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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Leipzig beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.38 xG and RB Leipzig 1.43 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against RB Leipzig attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 36% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 39%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 65%, RB Leipzig 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

RB Leipzig's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights