Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus RB Leipzig in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Frankfurt have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deutsche Bank Park.
RB Leipzig's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Leipzig's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, RB Leipzig are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eintracht Frankfurt lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–6 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Eintracht Frankfurt half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% and RB Leipzig 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 65% | RB Leipzig 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.38 xG and RB Leipzig 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.997 / defence 0.983 | RB Leipzig attack 1.003 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.453. Data: 63 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 63 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 36% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 39%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | RB Leipzig 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | RB Leipzig 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 36% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.38 / RB Leipzig 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.997 / def 0.983 | RB Leipzig attack 1.003 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.43
RB Leipzig xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 3 RB Leipzig.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 36% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
Record (9 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 3W | Draws 3 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.00x the league average against RB Leipzig's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (1.00x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.97
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
RB Leipzig xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.43 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 28W 18D 17L from 63 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 16L across 63 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.70 for RB Leipzig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 17W 7D 7L from 31 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 12W 9D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.73 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
RB Leipzig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 28W 18D 17L in their last 63 games (1.62 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 30W 17D 16L in their last 63 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or RB Leipzig away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.87 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Leipzig won 6-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, RB Leipzig have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, RB Leipzig 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 52% (RB Leipzig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; RB Leipzig in 42%; RB Leipzig in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 45% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 52% of RB Leipzig's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.38 xG and RB Leipzig 1.43 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against RB Leipzig attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 36% | Draw 25% | RB Leipzig 39%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 65%, RB Leipzig 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Leipzig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.