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Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.47 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.16 / defence 1.22 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.78 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 34%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 71%, FC St. Pauli 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights