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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt and FC St. Pauli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt and FC St. Pauli finished level at 2-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.89 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.86 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC St. Pauli outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.34 / defence 0.83 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.70 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 16%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, FC St. Pauli 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.56 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights