Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Frankfurt face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund meet at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Borussia Dortmund are 1.10 PPG clear of Eintracht Frankfurt in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Borussia Dortmund, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 76% and Borussia Dortmund 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 71% | Borussia Dortmund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.27 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.888 / defence 1.329 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.135 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 2.006 / away 1.400. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 38 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 22% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 56%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Dortmund 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 22% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.27 / Borussia Dortmund 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.888 / def 1.329 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.135 / def 0.711 | league avg home 2.006 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Borussia Dortmund xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 22% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (10 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 7W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.14x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
22%
4.56
22%
4.59
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.38
2.11
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
12%
8.26
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
3%
37.70
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.11 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 13D 13L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 26W 7D 5L from 38 games, 2.24 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 11W 5D 3L from 19 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.08 scored and 0.95 conceded. Eintracht Frankfurt's scoring rate against Borussia Dortmund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 12W 13D 13L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 26W 7D 5L in their last 38 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.37 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Eintracht Frankfurt or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Frankfurt have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 4-0 on 22 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 63%, Borussia Dortmund 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 53% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Borussia Dortmund in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 58% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 53% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.