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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 16, as Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.21 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 32% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 38%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 63%, Borussia Dortmund 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.73 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights