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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.61 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 35% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.67 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights