Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim make the trip to Deutsche Bank Park to face Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 3W 3D 4L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1899 Hoffenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1899 Hoffenheim away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.20 for 1899 Hoffenheim — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 5W, 1899 Hoffenheim 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 74% and 1899 Hoffenheim 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | 1899 Hoffenheim 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.08 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.938 / defence 1.065 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.087 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. Data: 35 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 35 1899 Hoffenheim games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 49% | Draw 23% | 1899 Hoffenheim 28%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.57. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 49% | Draw 23% | 1899 Hoffenheim 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.08 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.938 / def 1.065 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.087 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.55
1899 Hoffenheim xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 49% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (10 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 5W | Draws 2 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.94) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (1.09x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.40
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.63
1.55
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
3%
28.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.55 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 12D 12L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.74 PPG from 35 outings (18W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1899 Hoffenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.91 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
1899 Hoffenheim's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.47 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Draws
3
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, 1899 Hoffenheim 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 71% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 65% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.