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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 28, as Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.93 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Köln 18%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 64%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.61 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights