Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-6 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Eintracht Frankfurt (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Mönchengladbach face Eintracht Frankfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt make the trip to Borussia-Park to face Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Borussia-Park, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Eintracht Frankfurt are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Eintracht Frankfurt hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Eintracht Frankfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% and Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Eintracht Frankfurt 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.675 / defence 1.153 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.006 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.625. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 38 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 54%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1.85. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.675 / def 1.153 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.006 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.625 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 6 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 24% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (8 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.68x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.01x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
24%
4.20
22%
4.45
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.07
1.88
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
15%
6.58
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
4%
27.66
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.88 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 10L across 38 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 7W 4D 8L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.08 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.32 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Frankfurt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Frankfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 53%, Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 63% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 4-6 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-6 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-6 for 10 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.88 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 54%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, Eintracht Frankfurt 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.