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Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-4 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56 xG and Werder Bremen 1.46 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against Werder Bremen attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 36%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, Werder Bremen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.28 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights