Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FC Augsburg to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Augsburg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1 for FC Augsburg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and FC Augsburg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% | FC Augsburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.75 xG and FC Augsburg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.919 / defence 1.222 | FC Augsburg attack 0.740 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.362. Data: 55 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 55 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 4.00. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Augsburg (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.75 / FC Augsburg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.919 / def 1.222 | FC Augsburg attack 0.740 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Augsburg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 48% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.61
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.99
1.23
FC Augsburg xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.23 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 15D 21L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 15W 13D 27L from 55 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.31 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 6D 17L from 27 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.05 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.56 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 44% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 44% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out FC Augsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.75 xG and FC Augsburg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against FC Augsburg attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 25%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%, FC Augsburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.31 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.