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Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Mönchengladbach beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 xG and FC Augsburg 1.37 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against FC Augsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 36% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 35%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights