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Dominant FC Augsburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and FC Augsburg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against FC Augsburg attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, FC Augsburg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.21 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights