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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 4-6 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Frankfurt beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-6 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.18 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.88 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-6 for 10 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.88 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 22% | Eintracht Frankfurt 54%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, Eintracht Frankfurt 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights