Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.45. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (0.85x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.80
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.64
1.19
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
9%
11.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
1%
75.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.19 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.