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Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Köln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Mönchengladbach beat 1. FC Köln 3-1 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.61 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.77 / defence 1.35 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 29% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Köln 45%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Borussia Mönchengladbach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights