Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Mönchengladbach face VfB Stuttgart.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome VfB Stuttgart to Borussia-Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borussia-Park, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borussia-Park. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfB Stuttgart — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, VfB Stuttgart 6, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2026, ended 3–2 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | VfB Stuttgart 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.867 / defence 1.272 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.194 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 42 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 28% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 50%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.57 | Draw 4.55 | VfB Stuttgart 2.00. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | VfB Stuttgart 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 28% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56 / VfB Stuttgart 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.867 / def 1.272 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.194 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.09
VfB Stuttgart xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Borussia-Park.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 28% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 4W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 6W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
28%
3.51
22%
4.58
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.65
2.09
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.51
28%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
12%
8.07
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
4%
28.32
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.09 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 13L across 42 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 8W 5D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.19 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 43%, VfB Stuttgart 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 90% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 76% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 90% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.