Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Mönchengladbach face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borussia-Park plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 3D 3L at Borussia-Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borussia-Park. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Borussia-Park than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Borussia Dortmund hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 3 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% versus Borussia Dortmund 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Borussia Dortmund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.06 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.869 / defence 1.272 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.018 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.380. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 42 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 22% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 54%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Borussia Dortmund 1.85. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% | Borussia Dortmund 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 22% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.06 / Borussia Dortmund 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.869 / def 1.272 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.018 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Borussia Dortmund xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Borussia-Park.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 22% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (10 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 6W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.02x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
22%
4.47
23%
4.28
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.85
1.79
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
26.67
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.79 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 5L across 42 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 11W 7D 3L across 21 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 27W 10D 5L in their last 42 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.19 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 43%, Borussia Dortmund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 52% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Borussia Dortmund in 38%; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 52% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.