🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 3-3 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.62 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.07 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 0.98 / defence 0.69 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 50% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 25%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 61%, VfB Stuttgart 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.77 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights