Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees SC Freiburg travel to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 66% and SC Freiburg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 66% | SC Freiburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG and SC Freiburg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.350 / defence 0.916 | SC Freiburg attack 0.888 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.463. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Borussia Dortmund games / 44 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 48% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 4.55. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 70% | SC Freiburg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 48% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.76 / SC Freiburg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.350 / def 0.916 | SC Freiburg attack 0.888 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.19
SC Freiburg xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 48% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Record (6 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 5W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.35x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.33
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
SC Freiburg xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
4%
25.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.19 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 23W 10D 11L from 44 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 17L across 44 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 15W 3D 4L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 8W 3D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.32 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.18 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 64%, SC Freiburg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Dortmund and 64% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 41%; SC Freiburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 41% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 4-0 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG and SC Freiburg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.35 / defence 0.92 against SC Freiburg attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 48% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 22%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 66%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.